Grant Budget Scenario Planner Template: Stress Test Your Numbers
A grant budget scenario planner helps you defend your numbers when inflation spikes, delivery costs shift, or funders cap overhead. Use this template to model best, base, and worst-case budgets, document assumptions, and feed clean figures into Crafty for bulletproof narratives.
TL;DR
- Scenario planning shows trustees and funders that you understand cost volatility and have mitigation plans.
- Use inflation data, full economic costing, and staffing assumptions to create best, base, and worst-case budgets.
- Update the planner quarterly and connect it to Crafty so budget narratives stay consistent with the numbers.
Why stress test grant budgets in 2025?
Inflation remains stubborn: the Office for Budget Responsibility’s November 2024 forecast keeps CPI around 2.8% into 2025. Arts Council England’s Delivery Plan 2024-26 caps some overhead claims at 10%, while the National Lottery Community Fund asks for contingency justification beyond 5%. Scenario planning proves your figures are justified and prevents deficits if funding covers less than expected.
Funders increasingly request sensitivity analysis. The HM Treasury Green Book optimism bias guidance (2024 update) warns of under-costing by up to 24% for new delivery models—so bring data to your justification.
How do you pick the right assumptions for each scenario?
Define three scenarios: base (most likely), best (faster growth, lower costs), and worst (delays, inflation, reduced match). Align assumptions with sources: OBR forecast for inflation, ONS inflation indices for sector-specific costs, and wage awards from the TUC wage updates (2024).
Map assumptions to your readiness checklist so trustees see the financial pillar status. If your evidence bank includes outcome cost data, reference it in the budget narrative.
What does a scenario planner template include?
The planner includes line-by-line costs, inflation multipliers, match funding, overhead caps, volunteer time valuations, and sensitivity notes. It outputs a table summarising changes across scenarios for trustees and funders.
| Cost Line | Base Case (£) | Best Case (£) | Worst Case (£) | Key Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delivery staff | 180,000 | 170,000 | 195,000 | Wage growth 4% (worst), 0% (best) |
| Facilities & utilities | 48,000 | 44,000 | 54,000 | Energy price cap change (Ofgem Q1 2025) |
| Programme materials | 32,500 | 30,000 | 36,500 | Supplier discounts vs. supply delays |
| Evaluation & monitoring | 22,000 | 20,000 | 24,500 | Independent evaluator availability |
| Contingency | 18,500 | 15,000 | 25,000 | Funder cap 10%; worst-case 15% needs reserves |
Use the table to brief trustees before signing off. Attach it to your readiness finance pack and your audit preparation evidence folder.
How does the planner link into Crafty budgets and narratives?
Upload the planner outputs to Crafty’s finance module. The AI uses your scenario notes to justify line items and flag funding gaps. Pair the planner with consortium MoUs if multiple partners share costs, and cross-link to the grant audit preparation plan to evidence mitigation.
Download the planner and next steps
Download the Excel planner, Notion scenario log, and Crafty import template. Run a pilot on your next major bid and review the assumptions quarterly with trustees.
Next actions
- Populate baseline costs using the latest management accounts.
- Agree scenario assumptions with finance and programme leads.
- Sync the planner with Crafty so narrative drafts reflect stress-tested budgets.
Key takeaways
- Scenario planning protects against inflation, wage changes, and overhead caps.
- Evidence-backed assumptions make budget narratives funder-ready.
- Crafty uses scenario outputs to produce consistent budget justifications.
Summary and next steps
Don’t leave budgets to static spreadsheets. Scenario planning reveals the pressure points funders will quiz you on and gives you answers backed by credible data.
- Run the planner for every six-figure bid or multi-year fund.
- Refresh assumptions quarterly to reflect inflation and wage negotiations.
- Export scenarios to Crafty so narratives, budgets, and evidence stay aligned.